Friday, March 21, 2014

Silver Chart & USLV

First of all . . . silver is up in the futures market at 2:33 AM, Friday, 21 March 14. Last print was for $20.35 an ounce

Let's get into the daily chart for silver:

(Click chart to enlarge) 

Note the following:

1. A very easy to read uptrend channel - perfectly parallel - suggests an easy channel for old and new bulls to play. Buy when silver touches but does not finish below the bottom line of the channel. Sell when it approaches the top line of the channel.

2. Notice to that silver's 50 Daily Moving Average (simple DMA) is about to cross above and over the 200 Daily Moving Average. In trading circles this is know as "the Golden Cross".

3. Note too that recent volume on the past four "down" days was below average or above average. Looking at the volume since February, most "above" average days dame on days when the bulls were in charge buying.

4. And silver, as of yesterday's close of $20.28 per ounce, is still trading above the close of $19.43 per ounce on the last trading day of 2013, which last years was December 31st.

5. Lastly, silver is up 4.2% since Dec. 31, 2013. Gold, however, is up 9.3% since Dec. 31, 2013. Will the laggard begin to catch up with the leader?

Keeping this all in mind I have initiated the following buy into a highly leveraged Silver ETN: (Nasdaq: USLV) VelocityShares 3x Long Silver ETN.

Before I show that chart here is how I am playing this bet:

1. I took a good hunk of capital and set it aside for this particular trade.

2. I took that capital and divided by 15.

3. For illustrative purposes let's round the capital off to $15,000.

4. I bought the close yesterday on the USLV chart with my first $1,000.

5. If and only if USLV closes lower today (Friday, 21 March 2014), I will scale in again, but this time with $2,000 more of the capital.

6. And, if needed, the next three scale ins would be $3,000, $4,000 and $5,000 - and I'd only make those scale ins on corresponding closes which are lower than yesterday and today's close.

7. This is called simply the Rock's (1,2,3,4,5) Scale In Method.

As I am pressed to do some "homework" for my real job, I won't go into the pasting of the USLV chart here. Just know that it pretty much follows the silver chart, but with a lot more leverage.

What I am hoping for today is another close below Thursday's close. I really would love to purchase more USLV shares at cheaper prices.

Let's see what today's close brings, and then I'll repost the Silver chart with no intel below in the comment's section or with a whole new post. I should also have time to post an updated USLV chart by then...


Over and out

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Bought Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) At The Open Yesterday For $428.47 Per Share: Here's Why

Our first swing trade on this board is the might Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL).

I bought at the open yesterday using "Buy At Market". The trade went through during the first minute of trading.

Here's what I was seeing a liking on the Apple daily chart:

(click on chart image to enlarge) 

  1. The three encircled candlesticks all showed long "bottoming" tales before recovering late day. The first of those candlesticks (the one from last Friday, 5 Apr 13) is what's referred to as a hammer - which is signalling a "hammering out of the bottom". 
  2. Note that the hammer on 5 Apr 13 touches $419.68 as its low. Previously, one month earlier on 5 May 13, we have a yearly low of $419.00. What we have from both of these lows is a "double bottom".
  3. Note the 3 week old downtrend line (used by swing traders "shorting" Apple for two the past two weeks) was broken out of on Monday 8 Apr 13. Tuesday was more of the same type of action of Monday, higher highs, higher lows. Three sticks in a row, higher highs, higher lows.
  4. Lastly, using risk/reward money management, I set my stop/loss at $418.00. Even had I been stopped out (or stopped out of it today) I still would have not lost more than 1/2 of 1 percent of all my trading capital. 

As luck would have it, Apple takes off, finally, the day I bought the open. As Apple continues up its new trendline, I will continue to raise my stop/loss.

For an always updating view of my Apple Daily Chart, click here.

Welcome To The New Southernmost Swing Trader Blog

As some of you already know, I have started a blog of "safe" Dow 30 trades which I use swing trade timing to enter and which I intend to keep as Long Term Buy & Hold investors - such as my family. The name of that blog is The Dow 30 Swing Trade (LTBH).  

This new blog, Southernmost Swing Trader,  will be for those of you who might want to try pure swing trading without a bent for Long Time Buy & Hold Investing (heretofore abbreviated as LTBH Investing).

Here, instead of focusing on Dow 30 stocks with healthy dividends, we will be chasing stocks with volume and big average true ranges in share price.

Here, we will watch momentum stocks.

Here, we will watch hot sectors in play.

Here, we will trade both bullish and bearish ultra ETFs.

Here, we will embrace volatility.

Here, we will employ stop/losses. Rarely will average down on any position. Many times we will average up on entry positions.

Most of our trades will last 5 to 7 days. A small handful of trades, perhaps 10% to 20%, will develop into holds which stay in place for a few weeks, or until the primary trendline gives way and we are stopped out after having raised our stop/losses numerous times.

Here, we will not drill down into Financial Analytics, but will employ Technical Analytics to find high probability setups

Here, we will share trade secretes and stock tips to make us all emotionless traders bent on beating the markets weekly, monthly and yearly.

That said, get ready for my first pick which I entered just yesterday.